I Lay The Odds For This Year’s Emmys
Week 3, Part 2: Outstanding Lead Actor In A Movie/Limited Series
I’m already raising objections because for some reason two of the most likely contenders in this category: Russell Crowe, who won the Golden Globe for The Loudest Voice and Aaron Paul, who already won three Emmys for playing Jesse Pinkman, the role he recreated for El Camino, where inexplicably ignored for nominations. There are still some good contenders, but they have drawbacks. Let’s look at them.
Jeremy Irons, Watchmen: 9–2. For Playing: Adrian Veidt, aka Ozymandias, the Smartest Man Alive, and the man who ‘saved the world’. He’s now living in retirement… and that’s all I’ll say. Pro: There was a lot of exceptional casting throughout the series, but Irons as Veidt, a man with an ego the size of his intellect, may have been the most perfect among it. Playing a man who seems to be living a life of leisure among clones that we initially assumed her created, we soon realized just where he fit in the larger picture. And when everything came together in the finale, it was a magnificent achievement as Veidt came as close to realizing his flaws as he was capable. This was a superb performance. Con: For much of the series, Veidt’s character seemed to exist out the main plot. This was by design, of course, but it didn’t change the fact that the one certain link to the original series seemed superfluous for much of it. All of that considered, I have a feeling even those who loved his work may have trouble voting for Irons, certainly as a lead actor.
Hugh Jackman, Bad Education: 39–10. For Playing: Frank Tassione, the worshipped school superintendent, whose life is holding secrets that involve sexual and financial scandals. Pro: As a New Yorker, who doesn’t live that far from Roslyn where the majority of the action in this superb movie took place, I have a certain admiration for the general style and wit of this story. And though I’ve admired Jackman’s work for a long time, its really remarkable to see how well he handles the image of being a hero to his district — until he is undone by a school newspaper. This is by far the most humorous and endearing performance in the entire collection, and for that alone it deserves to be considered. Con: It’s been awhile since an actor from a TV Movie has prevailed in any of the categories. The fact that the film received only two nominations total doesn’t exactly sing out well for its chances. Jackman deserves to win, but I don’t think he will.
Paul Mescal, Normal People:19–5. For playing: Connell, a young man in college suffering from romantic and psychological issues. Pro: This is one of those series that snuck up on Emmy voters. It’s currently ranked pretty high on imdb.com and considering how divisive the book one, it’s a shock as well as the fact that this is Mescal’s very first performance. Every so often the Emmys picks out a fresh-faced performer who wows everybody. Could this be the year for a man who just made his debut? He’s certainly rising high among the experts. Con: The series wasn’t nominated for Best Limited Series, for all the raves. It wasn’t the highest profile project even for Hulu. And given the star quality of three of the other nominees, I find it very hard to believe Mescal can prevail.
Jeremy Pope, Hollywood: 9–2. For Playing: Archie Coleman, an African American screenwriter in a very different Hollywood. Pro: One heard a lot of great things about this series, Ryan Murphy’s attempt to show old-time Hollywood as we’d want it to be. And there were a lot of powerful performances in this group, Pope (more popularly known for his work on Broadway among them). An almost total unknown making a stunning debut on television and upstaging several other great potential nominees is something the Emmys only occasionally does.Pope looks on the verge of doing so. Con: Hollywood also wasn’t nominated for Best Limited Series, and there was a better case for it than Normal People. This will probably end up working against Pope.
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much is True: 18–5. For Playing: Dom and Tom Birdsey, twin brothers, one schizophrenic, one a caregiver, each living a troubled life. Pro: Months before this series even aired, Ruffalo was considered the runaway favorite to win Best Actor, and if you’ve seen his work, its easy to see why. He plays both brothers so distinctive it’s often hard to see that they’re both being played by the same actor. Tom’s frequent ranting, Dom’s interior anger — either one would’ve been a feast for any actor. Ruffalo has always been one of the greatest actors in any medium. And it’s hard to come up with an argument for him not to win. Con: Ruffalo’s nomination was the only one that the series received. And as I indicated in Jackman’s entry, it’s going to be really hard for Ruffalo’s extraordinary performance to prevail when it’s the only nomination from its series.
PREDICTION: Ruffalo’s buzz may hold him over, but don’t rule out Jackman coming out ahead.