If The Astras Happen Tomorrow, Here Are My Predictions

My Attempts (And Hopes) For the 2025 Astra TV Awards

Those of you who’ve read my column are aware that since it debuted at the start of the decade I have been a huge booster of the Astra TV awards. Last May they announced their nominations for television and while there have been some shakeups I was overall satisfied as always with the nominations.

The Astra TV Awards were ‘scheduled’ for June 10th. I use quotes because last year they were scheduled to air in the middle of August and were inexplicably postponed at the last minute and didn’t occur until the middle of December. Considering the ‘unrest’ (allow the euphemism) in Los Angeles that has been unfolding this past weekend, I am unsure if they will take place on schedule. It’s not as though there isn’t already precedent: this past January both the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG Awards pushed back their ceremonies into February because of the fires that devastated much of LA and California this past winter. It would be understandable if a lesser awards show chose to do the same.

But it may not happen. While checking online I learned the BET Awards which take place in downtown Los Angeles have no plans to postpone their ceremony which is scheduled for tonight. Considering that the Tonys went on as per usual this Sunday, perhaps things will continue as normal. I cannot say for sure.

For now, I’m going to see the glass as half-full and assume that the Astra TV awards will happen tomorrow night and that I will be able to see them. Worst case scenario I’ll have the predictions up on record anyway.

So for now I’m going to try to stop worrying and predict the Astras. Considering that the lion’s share of the Awards at the end of last year basically rewarded programs that were eligible during the 2023–2024 season — Shogun, Hacks and Baby Reindeer were basically as dominant as they had been at last year’s Emmys — the Astras have more prominence in possibly indicating many of the major contenders for the Emmy nominations which will come in just over a month. The nominations for the majority of the series in drama and comedy have given us insight and it is conceivable limited series will show similar interest.

Because for the first time in their existence I don’t have a road map the way I did in previous years I’m going to proceed on the premise of most awards shows: what I want to win and I want I think will win. If you’ve read my reviews of the Astras nominations and awards over the last four years, you know that in all that time the Astras have yet to give a winner that I am absolutely opposed to. That day may come soon, it may come this year, but I find it hard to believe.

I’ll start with comedy:

BEST COMEDY SERIES

So far this year I haven’t seen Hacks, which is the only reason I haven’t automatically given in the I hope it will win. I wouldn’t object to Abbott Elementary or Shrinking winning but come on I have no problem with Hacks taking the grand prize.

Should Win/Will Win: Hacks

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A BROADCAST COMEDY

Ghosts has done very well at the Astras over the last three seasons, defeating frontrunner Abbott Elementary at least once in the three seasons both were on the air. My personal preference would be for Abbott or newcomer St. Denis Medical, which is very much in the mold of Abbott. I’m going to give the slightest edge to Abbott Elementary this time around but I’m not going to lie I think it could probably go to Ghosts.

Should Win: Abbott Elementary/ St. Denis Medical.

Will Win: Abbott Elementary/Ghosts.

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A CABLE COMEDY

Not going to lie I would really love to see Somebody Somewhere take the prize for its final season on the air. But there’s no question as to what will win in this category: What We Do In The Shadows has already twice won Best Cable Comedy over tougher competition then this field and I see nothing standing in its way for its valedictory season.

Should Win: Somebody Somewhere.

Will Win: What We Do In the Shadows.

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A STREAMING COMEDY

Despite being the strongest field I think this will come down to two shows Hacks and Only Murders in the Building. Hacks is the overwhelming favorite but Murders did manage an upset win at the SAG Awards for Best Comedy series. I think Hacks has been dominant enough that it will prevail hut don’t rule out Murders coming through.

Should Win: Hacks/Shrinking.

Will Win: Hacks.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Okay so far this year the end of year awards have given us some leadership though it is divided. Jeremy Allan White won his third consecutive Golden Globe for The Bear. Adam Brody took the Critics Choice Award for Nobody Wants This. And Martin Short prevailed for Only Murders in the Building at the SAG Awards. Short has also won in this category before in 2022, when he defeated Jason Sudeikis in an upset.

This is, like all of the categories, filled with strong contenders. I think at this point The Bear’s buzz has begun to fade and White will not prevail. Seth Rogen does have some momentum for The Studio that may shake things up. And Utkarsh Ambudkar has won a couple of times in this category. That said I think it will come down to either Short or Brody. My personal preference is for Brody, so I’ll give him the barest of edges.

Should Win: Brody/Segel.

Will Win: Brody/Short.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

The easiest pick of the night despite how strong the contenders are. Jean Smart has won in this category every year she’s been nominated for Hacks; in fact her triumph in this category way back in 2021 was a harbinger for how she has essentially dominated all major comedy awards since. To be fair Selena Gomez did beat her one year and we can never rule out Brunson or Edebiri. But Smart won every award in sight since September and I expect it to happen again this year. Couldn’t be more thrilled.

Should Win/Will Win: Smart.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

We actually have some precedent here: Michael Urie did win in this category for the Critics Choice Awards this February. But he was not up against his co-stars Brett Goldstein (who won twice for Ted Lasso) and that ‘up and comer named Harrison Ford. Ebon Moss-Bachrach has won a couple of these so he could be a force.

My out and out frontrunner is Harrison Ford, who absolutely deserves to win a prize for something and his work in Shrinking is a master class. I won’t rule out the possibility that Urie or Tyler James Williams could prevail, but I think Ford has a bit of an edge.

Should Win: Ford.

Will Winn: Ford/Moss-Bachrach.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

This is, in many ways, just as much a no-brainer as Outstanding Actress in a Comedy. It shouldn’t be considering the field. Lisa Colon-Zayas could prevail for The Bear, Catherine O’Hara has had a hell of a year; Janelle James has already won in this category and Jessica Williams deserves too.

But this is Hannah Einbinder’s to lose. It’s not just that she already won the Critics Choice Award in this category in February or even that she’s won in this category every years she’s been nominated; it’s that she’s finally on her way to an Emmy after being robbed last year. Much as I’d like to see James or even Meg Stalter win, Einbinder walks away with this.

Should Win/Will Win: Einbinder.

OUTSTANDING WRITING AND DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES

For now I’m giving the edge in writing to ‘Slippery Slope’ for Hacks for writing. I think it’s likely The Studio will win for direction for ‘The Oner’ the episode that looked like a one shot.

BEST GUEST ACTOR AND ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

I’m going to give the edge to Jamie Lee Curtis for her work in The Bear. I’d like to see Kaitlin Olson win for either of her roles but I’m pretty sure she’ll cancel herself out. As for Best Guest Actor, Jon Bernthal might prevail but don’t rule out a win for Bradley Cooper for his work in The Righteous Gemstones.

Now we move to drama.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA

For the first time in nearly twelve years we are going into Emmy season with no clear front runner for Outstanding Drama Series. Try to figure out this year…well let’s work backward.

Will Trent, Bridgerton and Daredevil have no realistic chance of even being nominated by the Emmys this year. Andor is a dark horse but I think Matlock has a better chance. Slow Horses does have some momentum but it’s not as flashy. That leaves us with the four likeliest contenders.

Severance and The White Lotus have both won at the Astras before. The Last of Us has momentum and The Pitt is popular. For the moment I’m giving the edge to Severance but we may have to see how the rest of them play out.

Should Win: The Last of Us.

Will Win: Severance.

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A NETWORK DRAMA

This is a very strong field with quite a few carryovers. I think it will come down to Will Trent which has won in this category twice before and Matlock. Given how much of a sensation Matlock has been, I’m giving it the barest of edges.

Should Win: Will Trent/Matlock.

Will Win: Matlock

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A CABLE DRAMA SERIES

This one comes down to The Last of Us or The White Lotus. Boy that’s a headscratcher. I’m giving the barest of edges to Last of Us mainly because it was the big winner in 2023.

Should Win: Last of Us/White Lotus.

Wiil Win: The Last of Us.

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A STREAMING SERIES

Despite my overwhelming personal preference for either Paradise or Yellowjackets I think it will come down to either Severance or The Pitt. I’m giving Severance the edge here.

Should Win: Yellowjackets.

Will Win: Severance.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

All right, let’s work backwards. Charlie Cox, Jacob Anderson, Joshua Jackson and (sigh) Ramon Rodriguez have no chance at Emmy nominations. The other six are all likely to be nominated and all are formidable contenders.

Eddie Redmanyne got a lot of early buzz for his work in Day of The Jackal but now much of that has dissipated. Pedro Pascal deserves to win for his work in the Season 2 premiere but he is stretching the definition of Lead Actor with his appearance. Gary Oldman looms as a dark horse. Sterling K. Brown has already won a couple of awards to this point. Noah Wyle’s never won anything and neither has Adam Scott. Scott and Pascal have both won Best Actor at the Astras before.

This is a tough call. My preference would be for either Brown or Pascal to prevail. But I’m going to give the edge to Adam Scott, mainly because he’s been owed an Emmy longer than the majority of the potential contenders and I really want him to win.

Should Win: Brown/Pascal.

Will Win: Scott.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

By contrast this one is easier, even though it shouldn’t be. Don’t get me wrong I’d love to see Melanie Lynskey or Britt Lower win as they have before, love to see Keri Russell or Carrie Preston win something. But Kathy Bates has this one in the bag. She already managed an upset win at the Critics’ Choice for Matlock; she managed to win at a couple of awards shows. She’s got this one down cold and I couldn’t be happier for her.

Should Win/Will Win: Bates.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

All right this award is going to go to either someone from Severance or The White Lotus. I really wish they’d give it to James Marsden for Paradise but such is his eternal fate.

Sight unseen (yet) my personal favorites are John Turturro for Severance and Walton Goggins for The White Lotus. I’m going to go with my heart instead of my head. Goggins is going to take this one.

Should Win: Marsden.

Will Win: Goggins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

I don’t think Severance gets this one. And I can’t bring myself to vote for Aimee Lou Wood. Jennifer Love Hewitt has no chance.

Allison Janney was an early favorite for her work in The Diplomat. Skye P. Marshall has been rising as an Emmy favorite for Best Supporting Actress. Julianne Nicholson was incredible on Paradise. And I loved Isabela Merced’s work on The Last of Us.

But two of my all-time favorite underrecognized actresses are facing off from The White Lotus. Carrie Coon and Parker Posey. Since Coon has been undervalued by television for longer, I’m giving the edge to Coon.

Should Win: Janney/Nicholson.

Will Win: Coon.

I’m going to give the edge for directing for the Through the Valley episode of ’The Last of Us’ Writing is tougher but I’m going to give the edge there to the season finale of Severance. Much as I’d like to see Yellowjackets win in the former and Will Trent the latter.

GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

I’d really like to see Joel McHale win for Yellowjackets or John Noble for Severance. But Jeffrey Wright takes this hands down for The Last of Us and I really don’t have a problem with that.

GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

I want either Hilary Swank to win for Yellowjackets or Catherine O’Hara win for The Last of Us. Kaitlyn Dever is going to win for The Last of Us. Again, no problem.

Now I’ll wrap this up with Best Limited Series. Here I probably will differ.

BEST LIMITED SERIES

I’m pretty sure Adolescence is going to win in this category. That said, even after three episodes I legitimately can’t endorse it. Dying for Sex, Presumed Innocent and The Penguin are all far better. I’m hoping The Penguin wins. I think Adolescence will.

Should Win: The Penguin.

Will Win: Adolescence

BEST CAST ENSEMBLE IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

The Penguin might very well prevail over Adolescence here because the latter had a great ensemble, the former didn’t.

Should Win: The Penguin.

Will Win: Penguin/Adolescence.

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Easiest one. Colin Farrell has won every acting award in sight since January. He takes this one on his route to the Emmy.

Should Win/Will Win: Farrell.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

This one’s tougher. I’m legitimately not sure whether Michelle Williams will prevail over Cristin Milioti. Milioti does have the Critics Choice Award for Best Actress in her pocket and that was won over much tougher competition. On the other hand Williams has been gaining momentum for her wonderful work in Dying For Sex.

I’m giving the barest of edges to Williams right now but I’ve been wrong in this category before.

Should Win: Milioti/Williams.

Will Win: Williams

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

This is tougher for me. Much as I’d like to see Clancy Brown win for his work in The Penguin I think it comes down to either Javier Bardem for his exceptional work in Monsters or Owen Cooper and Ashley Walters for Adolescence. I do think both the performers in Adolescence were superb but they might very well cancel each other out. My personal preference is for Walters, whose level and calm attitude through madness was the unsung story of that series. But I’m going to give the edge to Bardem who has been the early favorite.

Should Win: Walters.

Will Win: Bardem.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

I really would love to see Ruth Negga or Deirdre O’Connell prevail but I think it will come down to either Erin Doherty for her memorable turn in Adolescence or Jenny Slate for her remarkable work in Dying For Sex. It’s a tough call but considering Slate did manage to win at the Gotham Awards last week, I’m giving her the nod and I’ll be honest I really want her to win.

Should Win/Will Win: Slate.

BEST DIRECTING AND WRITING IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Obviously Adolescence will win directing, though I’m not thrilled by it, particularly as it’s nominated against ‘The Hurt Man’ episode of Monsters. It’s possible it will win for writing but don’t rule out The Penguin for that one.

There are quite a few other nominees in many categories but since I neither know enough or in some cases care enough I’ll let them wait until next week.

If the Astras happen tomorrow, I’ll be back on Wednesday with my reactions to the results. If they don’t…well, we’ll see.