David B Morris
4 min readJul 7, 2024

--

I've read your articles about cutting off Biden's chances and I've read similar articles from everywhere. I've heard the Democrats and the media and everyone else arguing the only way to stop a Trump victory in November is removing Biden from the ticket. I'm going to be blunt.

Removing Biden from the ticket ASSURES Trump wins.

Your premise seems to be based on the idea that if we remove Biden and find a suitable candidate that unknown candidate can, in four months, defeat Trump.

First off: What would it say about the party in power that they think that removing the incumbent President four months before the general election, one month after the primaries are ended that anyoune can trust them as a party who can govern? You say it would be the best thing for the electoral. We all know it was cause chaos and chaos has always been Trump's ally. The fact that we've spent the last week talking about Biden's performance at the debate instead of the fact that Trump spent an hour and a half lying in front of the electoral tells you more about the media's priorities than anyone else.

Second: You say that a generic democrat losing by six points as its nothing. If only we could run a generic Democrat. Unfortunately, we have to run an actual Democrat. All of the people you placed in a poll (with the exception of Duckworth) have been in polls by Reuters and Ipsos in the week after the debate. All of them are trailing Trump by four points. Every single reuters poll I've seen shows that there has been no major change between Biden's support before the debate and now. He's basically at the same point he was before the debat, either within two points of Trump or tied. There was in fact a poll in Bloomberg showing that his positiopn in the critical swing states of Michigan and Wiscnsin shows him leading by five points or more in both states. I have parsed every single poll that has come out in the week after the debate. All of them show that Biden hasn't long any support before the debate. The exceptions are various Republican slanted polls which basically are still the same and CNN polls, which I guess prove that people watched CNN think a certain way. I'd like to believe you and your fellow Democrats that the public is losing confidence in Biden but all the polls I've seen tell me differently. Your counterargument - and the one that the media, some Democrats and rich people are saying - is that they have a better handle on public perception then the public. That's the kind of attitude that has hurt Democrats.

And even I grant your premise, there's no historical evidence that this would work. Trust me, as someone whose spent his entire life studying the history of political campains and the Presidency, I can tell you this: the last time the party in power challenged its sitting President and retained the White House was...never. Not an era of brokered conventions, not the era of primary challeneges. In fact the opposite is always true: every time a party tries to challenge the incumbent President, no matter how and when it happens and regardless if the President survives the challenge are not, the incumbent Party ALWAYS loses the White House. It may be a combination of lack in faith in incumbent or more likely its because the lack of unity in the party leads the voters to questions its fitness to lead. Whatever the reason, it always ends in an electoral loss.

What you, the Democrats and the mainstream media is not a viable strategy or an unrealistic one for holding the White House. It's magical thinking based on a principle not that far removed from saying "if you believe hard enough, Tinker Bell will live." I have the same doubts you do about Biden, I won't pretend I doubt. But I know that despite everything you desperately want to believe, removing from Biden from the ticket, whether he agrees to leave voluntarily or is pushed, will NOT solve all our problems. Instead it will create far too many new ones and the idea that you can magically convince the elctorate in less than four months to get behind that is frankly delusional. I don't doubt your fears are reasonable. But what you seem to be proposing is that fear of the known is somehow worse than the fear of the unknown. The fact that all of this is single handedly going against the will of the voters in the primary - and that they wouldn't be enraged that this was a double cross - is another consideration everyone arguing for this doesn't seem to be taking and in a sense shows a different kind of disrepect. I'd think that the fact that what you're doing is basically undemocratic - that you're trying to subvery democracy in order to save it - would be enough of an argument against it. But since it doesn't seem to be, why not settle for the fact there's no proof it would work except magical thinking.

--

--

David B Morris
David B Morris

Written by David B Morris

After years of laboring for love in my blog on TV, I have decided to expand my horizons by blogging about my great love to a new and hopefully wider field.

Responses (1)