My Attempts to Predict The 2025 Critics Choice Awards For TV

It’s Not Going to Be As Fun A Party But The Show Will Go On

As fans of my columns are very aware the Critics’ Choice Awards have for the last fifteen years been one of my favorite awards shows, particularly when it comes to television. It is not just that they are almost always a lot of fun, it is that I’m always in awe of their choices.

For reasons that are clear to most people I expect the ceremony that will take place this Friday to be more subdued, if not somber. It is not just because of the reason of its postponement — the fires that caused such destruction to Los Angeles for the last few weeks have made the postponement of awards season almost trivial in comparison to events — but there are also controversies surrounded many of the nominated films, most notably the backlash against Karla Sofia Gascon that has led many to turn against Emilia Perez once considered to be a certainty to dominate the Oscars. (Gascon herself will not be in attendance.)

But awards shows have gone forth in the face of bigger, more potent disasters whether it be terrorist attacks or pandemics that led to them have to virtual ceremonies. And regardless of that I still look forward to trying to figure out which shows and actors will be among the major contenders for Emmys later this year. Many of the major nominees do take up a lot of real estate from last year but some will be prominent this coming year and it is very possible that we may get some signs of what shows deserve recognition. So once more into the breach.

As always I will start with Drama.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

As you’d expect this is the easiest one of the night. Much as I would like to see The Old Man prevail for what is its final season and while I’m very impressed by Day Of The Jackal, this will go to the show that dominated the Emmys this September and the Golden Globes last month. Shogun is going to be the big winner; the only question is how many awards it wins.

Should Win/Will Win: Shogun.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Eddie Redmayne will likely be a formidable contender for Day of the Jackal this summer as will Jeff Bridges for The Old Man. I would particularly like to see either of them win, particularly Redmayne. But this one is going to go to the past as Hiroyuki Sanada continues his winning streak for his masterful work in Shogun. I don’t have a problem with this and neither will anyone else.

SHOULD WIN: Redmayne/Sanada.

WILL WIN: Sanada.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

I won’t lie; I’d really like to see Shanola Hampton win for Found or Kathy Bates for Matlock. Not only did they each give searing performances; it would be a major shot in the arm for network television, which is having a moment, particularly in drama.

But I don’t have a problem with the clear front-runner as Anna Sawai continues to win every single Best Actress award imaginable for Mariko in Shogun.

SHOULD WIN: Hampton/Sawai.

Will Win: Sawai.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

It was somewhat surprising — in a good way — when Tadanobu Asano took the Best Supporting Actor trophy for his incredible work in Shogun at the Golden Globes. While he would seem to be the favorite, I believe that the presence of another Shogun star will split the vote the way it did at the Emmys.

So who will win? I personally would love to see Mark-Paul Gosselaar prevail for his incredible work as Sir on Found. However I suspect it will go to another incredible character actor: John Lithgow for his masterful work in The Old Man. He was one of those actors who was shut out by the Emmys in Season 1 and he deserves recognition from what is one of his great performances.

SHOULD WIN: Gosselaar.

Will Win: Lithgow.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

There are some very good choices in this category but for me this one comes down to two of the greatest actresses I’ve seen playing very different government roles: Alison Janney as the Vice President who has a hidden agenda on The Diplomat and the ice cold Nicole Kidman as a CIA operative in Lioness. My personal preference is for Kidman in this case but I have no problem with Janney going on into the winners circle. She had a great year on television and she deserves it.

Should Win: Kidman/Janney.

Will Win: Janney.

Before we move on to the comedies, note the striking absence of The Bear, which received only a single nomination for its third season after winning four out of five awards from this circle for Season 2. Considering the controversy around the third season, this may give some of a sign of what the Emmys might do down the rude. Or might not.

BEST COMEDY

To be clear I’ve actually seen six of the eight nominated comedies at this point and have a very good impression of the other two. None of them would make a bad choice as a winner in this category so I do give props to the Critics. That being said, considering that its already won every award for Best Comedy when it was competing against The Bear, there’s no question what will be the big winner. Season 3 of Hacks is absolutely going to crush it here and I couldn’t be happier.

Should Win/Will Win: Hacks.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

For the first time in a very long time we will see a new winner in Best Actor in a Comedy. Jeremy Allan White went back to back the last two years but he is absent from this category. So the question is who wins this year?

I would love to see basically any of them win but at this point I think the two biggest contenders are two lead actors from two of the most incredible new comedies of 2024: Brian Jordan Alvarez for The English Teacher or Adam Brody for Nobody Wants This. Having seen the entire first season of both shows, it is very hard for me to choose between them. Both represent an entirely different kind of comedy: Alvarez’s title character claims to be a good guy but as we saw in the first season, he’s basically shallow and selfish in certain ways. Brody’s character is a genuine good guy whose inner struggle is between love for God and love for a woman. Both are hysterically funny in fish out of water sequences.

My personal preference would be for Alvarez but Brody seems to have a certain momentum. He was the favorite to win the Golden Globe and the decision to give it to White was the one selection I couldn’t get behind. My guess is that Brody will prevail. But there are no bad choices here.

SHOULD WIN: Alvarez.

WILL WIN: Brody (but there are no bad picks.)

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

There are no bad choices here. Zero. I will admit a part of me really wants to see Bridget Everett prevail for the final season of the incredible Somebody Somewhere. But we all know who’s going to win and we’re all fine with it. Jean Smart will take her third straight Critics Choice Award for Best Actress and this time she’ll be here to claim it.

Should Win/Will Win: Smart.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Another strong category but I think this one comes down to Tyler James Williams for Abbott Elementary or Paul W. Downs for Hacks. There is almost nothing to choose between which one is the funnier one because Williams’ character is brilliant when it comes to saying nothing and Downs’ is brilliant when it comes to expressing everything. Tough call, but I’m going with Williams.

SHOULD WIN: Williams/Downs.

WILL WIN: Williams.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

This one is a no-brainer. There are some people who think Lisa Colon-Zayas will win in this category because of her Emmy in Season 2 and her work in Season 3. Respectfully speaking, those people are fools.

This is Hannah Einbinder’s award to lose. And not just because she was robbed of an Emmy last year. She has won Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy from the Astras all three years she was eligible. The critics have always loved her. She didn’t win the first two years from the Critics because of two towering talents: Hannah Waddingham and Sheryl Lee Ralph. Neither of them is here this year. Janelle James and Stephanie Koenig more than deserve to win for their work in Abbott Elementary or The English Teacher and they will someday. But it is Einbinder’s time and place.

SHOULD WIN/WILL WIN: Einbinder.

Now it’s worth noting that the Golden Globes were willing to give Baby Reindeer the sweep it got from the Emmys. The Critics might be even more particular then the Globes. With that in mind:

BEST LIMITED SERIES

As brilliant as such shows as Masters of The Air and Ripley are, I suspect this category will come down to The Penguin and Baby Reindeer. There is very little to choose between them but I do think Baby Reindeer will continue its streak in this category. As for the rest of the award, well, I’ll get to that.

Should Win: The Penguin/Baby Reindeer.

Will Win: Baby Reindeer.

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

When I was faced with a choice that was very much like this at the Golden Globes I went with Richard Gadd for Baby Reindeer. This time, I’m going to go the other way around and go for Colin Farrell for The Penguin. That all said, don’t rule out a win for Andrew Scott, who did take the Best Actor prize from the Astras for his work for Ripley.

Should Win: Farrell/Scott.

Will Win: Farrell.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

Jodie Foster, by now, has essentially won every major Best Actress prize for her incredible work in Night Country. The question is whether Cristin Milioti has the momentum for her incredible work as Sofia in The Penguin to overcome her.

This is, as you might be aware, an awards show notorious for having ties. I would like to see if Foster and Miloti could do so here. But failing that I suspect Foster will continue her long winning streak and I’m okay with that.

Should Win: Foster/Miloti.

Will Win: Foster.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

This is one of the few categories in the awards that I’m not thrilled with the majority of the nominees. I think it comes down to Robert Downey, Jr. for his work in The Sympathizer or the late Treat Williams for his superb work as Bill Paley in Capote Vs. The Swans.

I think Downey will win this one because he was the heavy favorite for the Emmy when The Sympathizer came out and has basically gone empty handed ever since. It was a masterful set of working for him and The Sympathizer honestly deserved more recognition then it got.

Should Win: Williams.

Will Win: Downey.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES

I have to admit I’m torn between my head and my heart on this one. My head knows very well that Jessica Gunning is absolutely going to win in this category because she’s won both the Emmy and the Golden Globe. But my heart — oh my heart — calls out for a win for Betty Gilpin for her extraordinary erotic and open performance in her work in Three Women.

I hope the Critics can find love for this incredible actress. But I know its going to go to Gunning. I don’t have a problem with that to be sure — it was a masterpiece and I’m fine with her winning. Still…

Should Win: Gilpin.

Will Win: Gunning.

While I have no idea if the other major nominees in this category will even be covered I have my preferences.

For Best International Series I expect the second season of Squid Game to prevail. For Best Animated Series, I think X-Men 97 has momentum — it won this same award from the Astras. For Best Talk Show, I’d like to see The Daily Show win. And for Best Stand-Up Special, look for it to go to either Ali Wong or Nikki Glaser.

Those are my predictions. I’ll be back on Saturday with my reactions.