My Predictions For the 2024 Emmys,
Week 3, Part 1
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
Before we get started in earnest on the third and final week of my predictions, two personal observations. Aside from the now standard complaint that the Emmys has to start nominated more than five contenders in the majority of these categories, this is by far the best field of contenders in Best Limited Series since, in my opinion, the era of Peak Limited Series began back in 2016. Even with the reclassification of Shogun in the Drama category the five leading contenders as well as the majority of the nominated performers are among the best I’ve ever seen in my history of reviewing. The Emmys will obviously really need to revisit this in the following year but aside from my prejudice to one of the major contenders I can’t fault almost any of the nominated series or actors. And for me that’s nearly unheard of.
So here are my predictions starting at the top.
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
Baby Reindeer (Netflix). Odds: 31–10. Pro: This is one of the most revered productions of all of 2024, perhaps second only to Shogun. It has already taken the Television Critics Association prize for Best Limited Series and from the moment Shogun decided to contend in Best Drama has become the unquestioned frontrunner. With good reason. Richard Gadd has created one of the most stunning, human and humorous — yes, humorous — TV events of the year based on an experience which he has written and bravely starred in. I’ve already written an incredible among about this work of TV and it is one that I personally relate to and has the same ability to find common ground that the phenomena Beef did last year. Gadd puts himself at the center of an only slightly fictionalized series of events that befell him when he was working in a pub that led to him becoming acquainted, then befriending a convicted stalker who over the course of a short time became determined to destroy his life. He does so revealing a dark story of a horrible sexual experience that led to his befriending her, and then a narrative on sexuality that is one of the bravest things in a year where sexuality was at the center of limited series in a way it hasn’t been before. And it ends on a note of despair for all involved. This is one of the phenomena of 2024. It deserves to win everything it gets. Con: Almost the moment it premiered there has been a series of controversies involving the real-life subjects of the story as well as potential lawsuits and (perhaps inevitably) online stalking of the people at the center.) That could very well work against it.
Fargo (FX). Odds: 9–2. Pro: Nearly four years after what we were told was going to be the final season Noah Hawley brought us back to the world of criminals and lawmen he has inhabited so brilliantly for more than a decade. This time he came far closer to the original source material then ever before (we could count all the Easter eggs) but added newer and more wonderful wrinkles. We followed the story of Dot, a young Minnesota housewife who escapes an abduction that reveals the story of a North Dakota sheriff who is there to be the difference between ‘what is right and what is wrong’, a group of good-hearted lawmen and very corrupt ones, a five-hundred year old soul-eater, and the head of one of the biggest debt collection agencies in America plus Dave Foley with an eyepatch. Essentially set in current times Hawley doesn’t even have to try to draw parallels with today’s society the way he has before — the themes of toxic masculinity, grooming, wealth and poverty were put amidst series where more than ever, the good ending up paying as much as the bad. The series dominated the Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, though they were buried by Beef. After a polarizing fourth season, it was good to be back in the world of Minnesota nice. Con: Fargo has never done as well in the Emmys as it immense quality would suggest (as I said, Peak Limited Series) and of the nominees in this category, it stretches back the farthest in premiere date. I have a feeling it’s not going to prevail.
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV) Odds: 9–2. Pro: This adaptation of Bonnie Garmus’s best-seller was one of the most incredible works of 2023 (even though I only finished it last week). Using the story of Elizabeth Zott, a 1950s scientist whose brilliant mind is frozen because of the sexism of the era, the writers tell a story of some of the deepest themes — science and faith, racism and sexism, finding family when you don’t expect it, realizing that community is what you build and showing how relationships can be spinning around you without you knowing them. It does so against the world of early television, racism seen through the world of freeways and some of the most inventive storytelling in this category (one episode took place entirely from the perspective of Elizabeth’s dog) Brie Larson led a cast of incredible performers to show a world that is in the relative past and more relevant then ever. Lessons was one of the major contenders for every award show at the end of 2023 and leading up to the nominations. It has already won awards for direction and music. In a normal year, it would be a heavy front-runner. Con: Even before Shogun dropped out, this was always going to be a difficult year for Lessons. The other contenders were among the most formidably acted, written and imaginatively framed works of 2024. This is the most traditional (if such a word could apply) nominee in the category.
Ripley (Netflix) Odds: 9–2. Pro: I have seen my share of mystery series and I genuinely didn’t think I was capable of being surprised by it anymore. Believe it or not, that’s exactly what Ripley did. Going off one of the most famous villains in the history of fiction Steven Zaillian took an incredibly different approach. In a world where dialogue seems to matter more than anything he would let Andrew Scott’s Tom be incredible by what he doesn’t say. How much of the limited series was silent will have to be calculated but it’s clear this one has the least dialogue, letting so much of what works be revealed by what Ripley says — or doesn’t say — when his lies called on. And in two masterworks we see Tom go through the kinds of sequence most mystery tend to just ignore — watching him cover up the murder in two bravura sequence in two different episodes. In the first there is no dialogue at all, in the second, the suspense involves an elevator that hasn’t functioned until now and countless shots of a cat that seem pointless — until the last minute. This is by far the best director and technical masterpiece in the category, perhaps in all of 2024. Zaillian and Scott have taken a story that has been remade in five movies to date and turned into something unique. Never have I hoped more for a second season. Con: The biggest problem Ripley has is the other nominee from Netflix in this category which deals with similar themes when it comes to both to darkness and sexual ambiguity. It will be tough for Ripley to overcome it.
True Detective (HBO) Odds: 4–1. Pro: This was, as my readers well know, the only nominee in this category I couldn’t willingly endorse in my original nominations. I knew Night Country was going to be a major contender but after two episodes I found it somehow even more pretentious then the previous versions and just threw up my hands. That doesn’t mean it isn’t more than deserving to win. It’s been a decade since the first season debuted and due to a horrible misclassification of it in the Best Drama category (why HBO?) it never got the Emmys it should have. Now a full decade later, completely reinvented with two brilliant female leads and an extraordinary female showrunner it has returned True Detectives to the front of the Emmy standings since the first season. It is led by a towering cast of performers from Jodie Foster and Kali Reis to exceptional character actors like Christopher Eccleston and John Hawkes. It moves away from the desert and sunny landscapes into the bitter cold of the Arctic circle. And it is written and directed by Issa Lopez who has quickly become one of the great talents in television. It has been picking up nominations right and left and is now the second show. It’s overdue. Con: From the moment it debuted Night Country was somehow more polarizing because of all of the Easter eggs that were thrown in from Season 1 that made many wonder about its connection to the first season. (There were none.) Nic Pollozatto, the now departed showrunner, spent a fair amount of time denouncing this as part of his universe. And the usual complaints about every version — particularly the supernatural overtones that never pay out — were here in force. Some of the cast may win Emmys; the show’s chances are still low.
Predictions: While I have a soft spot in my heart for Ripley, I suspect Baby Reindeer will win this easily and it deserves too.
Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series. I will have a blast with this one.