My Predictions For the 2024 Emmys, Conclusion

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES ET AL

For the most diverse collection of Emmy nominees in history, we have saved the best for the last. For the first time perhaps in this history of any awards show, two indigenous nominees are competing against each other. We also feature what is only the second transgender performer to be nominated in Emmys history. Aja Naomi King’s nomination for her incredible work seems almost banal by comparison.

We also feature some of the greatest array for performances in this category when it comes to the type of woman in these categories. And it’s worth noting that this particular category has led the way with some of the most prominent wins for both diversity and exceptionally strong performances: Niecy Nash-Betts’ win earlier this year was the fourth time in the last eight years an African-American actress has won in this category. And we have no real obvious front-runner.

So once more into the breach.

Dakota Fanning, Ripley. For Playing: Marge, an American expatriate in a relationship with Dickie Greenleaf. Odds: 7–1. Pro: Fanning had to bigger shoes to fill that Andrew Scott; her most well-known predecessor in this category was Gwynneth Paltrow. But Fanning had a different and more fascinating spin on this in the film. Her Marge, much like Dickie was something of a failure at her work, a horrible author whose affection for Dickie was always greater than his. As we saw in the letters she wrote ‘Dickie’ she was as good a liar as Tom was, at least to herself and Fanning walked a line between somewhat dim and just slightly unaware of the manipulations of Tom. Those of us who knew the novel were still capable of worrying that she might become Tom’s final victim in the last episode — until her final discovery showed one last sign of naivete. None of this is what we have come to expect from one of the greatest performers in her more than twenty year career. I really thought the Emmys might overlook her and I’m grateful they didn’t. Con: She’s ranked the least likely to win in her category and while I don’t think that’s fair to her, I can understand the logic. Marge is a shrinking violet compared to the other nominees in this category and indeed most of the past winners over the last decade. It’s clear she’ll be left behind — much like Marge was.

Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge: Odds: 13–2. For Playing: Cam Bentland, a police woman trying to solving a shocking murder. Pro: Long before she became the frontrunner for Best Actress in Killers of the Flower Moon Lily Gladstone was a powerhouse performer. Even before her guest role in Reservation Dogs throughout the series she had been one of the most prominent indigenous performers, sometimes in unlikely places (Who’d have thought she’d end up on Billions?) Was she robbed of an Oscar for her work on Killers? Very likely. But now she has a chance to do something Emma Stone can’t, win an Emmy. I’m actually a little insulted that Gladstone is in this as a supporting performer; her work as Cam is as much a lead as Riley Keough, if not more so. And she is the force of justice in this series in a way that many of the murky characters in the show aren’t. It’s a superb work worthy of a nomination…Con:…that is the only nomination Under The Bridge received. I’ve made it clear what the odds are for so many of the other performers who have this same bad luck and its very likely that it’s going to work against Gladstone here.

Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer. Odds:9–2. For Playing: Martha, a woman whose obsession with Donny becomes the focus and near doom of his life. Pro: Gunning gave one of the most incredible performances any actress has given so far in 2024 and that includes almost every other actress nominated for an Emmy in any category. Her Martha was one of the most brilliant portrayals: someone who initially seemed such a complete mess and fragile, someone whose messages were so badly spelled, someone who seemed such a loser that even when we learned she was a convicted stalker, it took us — like Donny himself — too long to realize what a real danger she was. When the true monster was revealed in a shocking moment, even then she seemed fragile as much as she was horrible. And that’s before you consider how much of Gunning’s brilliance comes more from her voice messages as much as anything she does on his screen. Even when Martha isn’t there, she’s looming over everything and it’s clear watching Donny as things unravel how terrified he is of her and yet somehow still feeling sorry. It’s fitting the last words are Martha’s: we see at the end she’s just as broken as Donny is, she just did a worse job of hiding. Gunning has been the overriding favorite and deserves to win. Con: Despite Gadd’s best efforts the real Martha was discovered by fans and in a twist that should have shocked no one has been the victim of harassment herself. Gunning has since launched lawsuits against both Gadd and Netflix. Will the controversy that hangs over everything about this show end up hurting its nominees as well? That’s the question mark hanging over both Gunning and the entire series as we approach Emmy night.

Aja Naomi King, Lessons In Chemistry. Odds: 13–2. For Playing: Harriet, an African-American lawyer determined to protect her neighborhood from an impending freeway. Pro: An entire series could have been written on Harriet Sloane in Lessons. From the start she was the strongest and most whole personalities in the show, the only character who because of the color of her skin, was not only more of a fighter and yet somehow just as good a lover and friend. Her relationship with Calvin was devoted and well-done and the slow, steady growth of her friendship with Elizabeth was the opposite of almost every kind of story we’ve seen between a white and black women in period piece over the years. Harriet was always the stronger one, always the more cool-headed, always the more affectionate. Nothing I saw King do on How To Get Away With Murder could have prepared me for this. She is the only performer in this category from 2023 who received nominations before the series came out. And few could argue she isn’t due a win. Con: When King, who was the heavy favorite at the Critics Choice Awards in this same category, lost to Maria Bello for Beef it was another sign that Lessons doesn’t have the momentum that so many of the other shows of 2023 did. And consider Lessons took place by far the longest ago of the nominees, I think King’s work will go unrecognized.

Diane Lane, Capote Vs. The Swans. Odds:7–1. For Playing: ‘Slim’ Keith, the ringleader of the plot to ‘starve Truman Capote of oxygen’. Pro: Any one of the other ‘Swans’ — Calista Flockhart, Chloe Sevigny or Demi Moore — could have been nominated here. Lane’s nomination, I suspect, is because her character of Slim was by far the most forceful of all the Swans on this show. She was the ringleader in the decision to destroy Truman, held to it harder and longer than all the others. But we saw, as the series progressed, she was also as big a hypocrite: cruel towards the women she claimed to protect, judgmental and unpleasant and in what was by far the biggest blow, claiming to be protecting Babe’s honor while have an affair with her husband while she was dying. Lane, like all the actresses cast, is among the greatest actresses of the last thirty years and one of the least recognized by any awards show. I think she more than deserves to win. Con: Lane is in a category with some of the best performance in Limited Series this year. And it seems to be perpetually the fate of performers in Ryan Murphy’s FX series to received nominations in this category but never win — Kathy Bates was the last nominee from an FX series to win in this category. The odds are not on her side.

Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer. Odds: 6–1. For Playing: Teri, a transgender woman who is in her relationship with a man. Pro: How much of Mau’s real life experience was imbued into playing Teri, the woman who Donny begins a relationship with under false pretenses and who can never overcome his own shame to see openly, is a question only she can answer. But playing the collateral damage not only of Donny’s issues with Martha but all of his own trauma over his life makes her care the one who walks away with the most integrity in the entire series. Mau’s work was one of the great triumphs as she was the only sympathetic character from the beginning and was still the only one at the end of the series who was able to move on completely and fully. Mau’s performance is the moral center of humanity in this dark work, a beacon. Con: I omitted Mau as a possibility for a nomination in my initial prediction not because of the lack of quality in her work but because I thought the revelatory work of Gunning would completely overshadow it. Mau has been rising in the odds but I’m not sure that will me enough to get her past Gunning.

Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country. Odds: 11–2. For Playing: Detective Navarro, a detective who believes there’s a link between a series of murders and the disappearance of an activist five years earlier. Pro: Navarro is a character unlike any we’ve seen in more than a decade on True Detective. We’ve had minorities play lead roles on the series before but never one as spiritual or as devoted to their purpose in a long time. Her character has the moral high ground in Night Country — territory the show has never inhabited, much less well — and she does so behaving in a style that is fully in keep with the sexual proclivities of so many of the men on this show. And considering that she had to spent the entire series sharing the screen with one of the greatest actresses in history — and she was more than up to the challenge — shows what a powerhouse she is. Con: Anyone who watches Night Country and thinks that Reis was a supporting character really hasn’t watched it. I do get why Reis did it as we saw in the inaugural season the presence of Woody Harrelson in Best Actor in a Drama has to have been a factor in Matthew McConaughey not winning in 2014. Theoretically she’d have a better chance of winning here. But that’s in theory.

Prediction: My heart wants Fanning or Lane. My head says Gunning takes this by a nose. But this is a category for shockers over the decade too.

WRITING AND DIRECTING IN A LIMITED SERIES

Writing has two of the limited series as a whole nominated: Baby Reindeer and Ripley. Much as I’d like to see Fellow Travelers or Fargo win, I’m giving this to Baby Reindeer, the heavy favorite.

Episode 4 of Baby Reindeer is the favorite for direction but I find it unlikely Gadd will win her given the majesty of so much of the other direction. I’d like to see Steven Zaillian win for Ripley which was by far the most impressively directed limited series but I suspect it will go to Issa Lopez for her superb work in Night Country.

As for Variety Talk, I suspect Jon Stewart’s return to The Daily Show will propel him to victory and John Oliver will triumph for Scripted series. As for Reality shows, as Bill Murray eloquently put it, who cares?

I’ll be back a week from Monday to give a general review of everything that happened on Emmy night. Thank you for staying with me all this time. Reviews for the new season will begin next week.