My Predictions For the 2024 Emmys, Week 3, Day 3

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN LIMITED SERIES

First I must express my gratitude to the Emmys (and so far every other awards show this year) for having the good sense to ignore completely both Kate Winslet and The Regime. Considering the Emmys history with Winslet in regards to HBO I thought a nomination inevitable regardless of the poor quality of this series. It was the kind of show that screams Emmy bait and I’m grateful the Academy didn’t take it.

Now on to the actual nominees which, while not as impressive as the Outstanding Lead Actor nominees still represent some of the best performances in the past year. Three extraordinary film actress and two of the greatest actresses in TV in recent years led the way in what has been a historically strong category even before Peak Limited Series began. Who will join the ranks of Regina King, Nicole Kidman and Michelle Williams? Let’s look at the nominees.

Jodie Foster, True Detective. Odds: 16–5. For Playing: Chief Danvers, the lead investigator on a mysterious group of killings that take on a life of their own. Pro: Foster is one of the greatest actresses of all time, full stop. She won two Academy Awards before she was thirty and has created some of the most iconic roles in the history of film. It has been half a century since she has had a major role in a TV series and she picked a hell of a show and role to come back on. In a series that has even at its best rarely had much to do with subtlety or nuance in its characterization, Foster’s work as Chief Danvers was one of grounded rationalism, trying to find reason in a situation that increasingly seemed to defying, looking for logic in a situation that wasn’t there. Lopez gave Foster more to work with then the male protagonists in the previous incarnations and certainly the women: Danvers was someone who was trying to deal with so many of the traumas in her past and was handling all of them by not handling them: she’d failed as a wife, was failing as a mother and barely holding it together as a sheriff. Foster hasn’t played a character this broken by trauma since her work in the very different film The Brave One and whenever this series seemed in danger of going off tilt (which being True Detective, happened a lot) Foster was there to anchor it. She’s been the favorite in this category since the show debuted in January and few actresses are more worthy of it then her. Con: We all know True Detective’s track record when it comes not just to the Emmys but acting awards; what it seems to do more frequently is enable its leads to win Oscars just by showing their range during the series. It didn’t work in Foster’s case this past year; does it mean she’s doubly certain to lose?

Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry. Odds: 4–1. For Playing: Elizabeth Zott, a female scientist whose life takes one dramatic turn after she finds herself in the most unlikely romance. Pro: In almost every major awards show at the end of the year Larson was in the hunt for Best Actress, and she was more than up to the challenge. Few performers have been more liberated by being freed from the yoke of the MCU then Larson who was given a chance to play a character who was far more heroic and human than Carol Danvers ever was and far more deserving of the title of feminist icon. Elizabeth Zott had to deal with a toxic masculinity that never went away when she was alive and infiltrated every aspect of her professional life. She had a scientific detachment that made her unable to make connections easily and she resisted them. And then she became — even more astonishing to herself — a lover, a mother, a pioneering TV star, and someone who built a community around her without realizing it. Larson’s work was the most rewarding I’ve seen any of the performers in this category gave and the most fulfilling. And when you consider all the hate she’s had to take on just for choosing to be Captain Marvel, she’s earned this Emmy. Con: Larson spent all of the awards season losing to Ali Wong in Beef and its been nearly a year since the series debuted on Apple. She has been rising in the standings but will that be enough to beat Foster.

Juno Temple, Fargo. Odds: 4–1. For Playing: Dot Lyon, a Minnesota housewife whose past comes back to violently confront her. Pro: Somehow Juno Temple’s Keeley was the only person who walked away from Ted Lasso without any awards. (Though since its coming back for a Season 4…) In Fargo she got to sink her teeth into a completely different kind of independent woman: someone who embraced the title of demure wife and mother so thoroughly that it wasn’t until the episode began that so many people began to realize that she was a tiger. As we learned the long and very dark backstory behind Dot and all of the obstacles she was facing in the present on all sides Temple got to show an inventiveness and a steel in her spine that shocked everybody who somehow kept underestimated her. And it came as a shock that when all was said and done, she managed to deal with the biggest monster in the season through kindness and humanity. This is one of the most layered performances in a brilliant season full of them. And Temple is more than overdue recognition from the Emmys. Con: Temple basically fell victim to Beef during the awards at the start of the year. And her momentum has similarly dropped. Her work was far more interesting then the other female lead from an anthology mystery series but they’re more likely to honor Foster.

Sofia Vergara, Griselda. Odds: 9–2. For Playing: Griselda Blanco, the head of one of the most ruthless drug cartels in history. Pro: Vergara’s presence in this category was a shock to many (she was the only nominee I didn’t foresee in my predictions for the nominations) but her work was certainly a revelation for those who know her only for her outstanding comedy work on Modern Family. In this role Vergara got to embrace her inner darkness by playing a character that is unlike any we’ve seen in the multitude of dramas about drug cartels we’ve seen over the last quarter of a century and is all the more astonishing for being real. Vergara got to sink her teeth into a role (and speak Spanish in a way that is practically unheard of in American series) playing a character so dark and bloody that the Avon Barksdale’s and Gus Frings of the world would think twice before trying to cross her. And considering how few female villains there have been in the era of Peak TV and fewer still are allowed their own series Vergara deserves enormous credit for taking on this role. Throw in the fact she never took a single Emmy for Modern Family and she’s crying out for recognition. Con: But the fact remains she is the outlier in this category. Many were certain that Kate Winslet or other contenders like Annette Bening or Julianne Moore would come in ahead of her in nominations. The nomination will probably have to be enough.

Naomi Watts, Capote Vs. The Swans. Odds: 9–2.For Playing: Babe Paley, the cancer ridden wife of Bill Paley on whom the war with Truman Capote takes the most emotional toll. Pro: Ever since she burst on to the scene in Mullholland Drive Naomi Watts has been one of the greatest actresses working — and one of the least recognized for her efforts. Her work in Feud isn’t her first major role in a TV series but it’s one of the most arresting. As Babe Paley, Truman’s closest friend among his swans she takes his revealing of a critical secret in his excerpt from Answered Prayers the most personally but is also the one who is the most inclined to forgive him. She also has a far more tragic path, diagnosed with cancer halfway through the series and facing her mortality — and failings — as a wife, mother and friend. The saddest moment comes in the penultimate episode when Babe finally succumbs to her illness and goes through a dream with Truman — and in his final moments we see him undergo a similar fantasy before death. We also saw that Babe was betrayed more by her closest friends and family then any one else among the Swans and her loss of Truman must have come as a greater blow. Watts work moved me more than anyone else in this category. It was a profound performance. Con: Watts’s work involved a fragility that is an outlier of the nominees in this category. Babe was a strong woman but not in the way the other characters are. That used to be the kind of thing that won Emmys. It’s not any more, certainly not in this category.

Prediction: Foster will probably prevail but don’t rule out an upset by Larson.

Tomorrow I deal with Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series. This one is going to be very tricky.