My Predictions for the 2024 Emmys, Week 3, Day 4

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES

In the years of Peak Limited Series, this category has frequently seen relative newcomers overcome seasoned veterans: Sterling Brown defeating John Travolta and Hugh Laurie in 2016; Alexander Skarsgard beating Michael K. Williams and Alfred Molina in 2017; Ben Whishaw beating Stellan Skarsgard and John Leguizamo in 2019. We have a fair balance of veteran character actors and relative newcomers in this category — and unlike previous categories a pretty clear front-runner. Who will win? Here are the nominees.

Johnathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers. Odds: 9–2. For Playing: Tim, a junior staffer in Senator McCarthy’s office whose relationship with another man sends him on a journey of activism and self-discovery. Pro: Bailey has actually won a couple of awards for his work on Fellow Travelers — the Critics Choice Award and the Dorian Award for Best Supporting Performance in a Drama. And while Bailey didn’t receive similar recognition among the Golden Globes that his co-lead Matt Bomer did, his work was if anything more revolutionary. A devout Catholic and die-hard anti-communist at the start of the series his relationship with Hawk led him to do things he didn’t think he was capable of — and its telling that his homosexuality was the one he didn’t regret. Unlike Hawk, Tim had scruples that he never truly lost, was never ashamed of who he was in a way that Hawk in their entire relationship hiding and there’s an argument that his deep love for him cost him far more than it ever did Hawk. Yet even as he was dying of AIDS at the end of the series he was still the brave one. And its worth noting among his last lines were: “I have loved you my whole life. My great enduring love.” It was something Hawk couldn’t admit until Tim was forever beyond his reach. Bomer’s work was the more revelatory performance but Bailey’s was by far the more emotionally potent one and he deserves to win. Con: It’s really hard to look as Bailey’s performance as ‘supporting’.

Robert Downey, Jr. The Sympathizer. Odds: 11–2. For Playing: Various characters in the lives of The Captain. Pro: From the moment it was revealed that Robert Downey Jr was not only doing his first TV series in 1999 but he would playing for different roles he became the overwhelming favorite in this category. And anyone who watched his work knows that this was another example of why Downey is one of the greatest actors of all time. He took on four different roles — a CIA agent, an academic, a far-right congressman and a Hollywood auteur — and even when you saw all four share the screen, it was clear that they were all similar but not necessarily Downey. This wasn’t just a trick of acting, we saw in the series finale that there was a fifth character Downey played — and it was clear their resemblance was not only how the Captain saw them all but how all of them were part and parcel of the exploitation of Vietnam. Downey entered the ranks of Alec Guiness, Peter Sellers and even Eddie Murphy with his work in The Sympathizer. After his deserved Oscar for Oppenheimer, many assumed he would win an Emmy in the same year. This performance is more than worthy of it. Con: Downey’s nomination is the only one that The Sympathizer got. Granted his fellow Avenger Mark Ruffalo was in the same position as Downey for another HBO limited series, I Know This Much Is True (which involved a similar bit of acting brilliance) and he was able to win. The difference is the category Ruffalo was in that year was a fairly weak one by the standards of the last few years. Downey is up against far stiffer competition.

Tom Goodman-Hill, Baby Reindeer. Odds: 6–1. For Playing: Foley, a British comedy producer who takes Donny under his wing — in more ways than one. Pro: I didn’t consider Goodman-Hill’s role large enough to be worthy of a nomination when considering this category last year: his character was only in three episodes. But considering that one of them was the flashback in which we learned the dark history of Donny and how significant that was to his entire life going forward, you can’t pretend it wasn’t important. And in that episode Goodman-Hill did show a range worthy of the work of many of the performers in this category: he had to. He was, after all, playing a groomer and sexual predator and he had to be charming, kind and just visible enough in Donny’s life that he would seem a real ally — to the point when he sexually violated Donny the first time, it came as much a shock to him as the viewer. How it played out over and over was more shocking then anything that happened with Martha in a way, particularly as we saw how it destroyed Donny as a person. And their final scene together where Donny seems unable to know if he can forgive him or not, was a haunting one in a haunting finale. It was a superb performance. Con: There’s been just as much controversy about who the real Foley was Martha. And more to the point, this role is less significant in the way the others are.

John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country. Odds: 6–1. For Playing: Hank Prior, the former sheriff who comes into constant conflict with everyone involved in the investigation. Pro: Hawkes has been one of the most undervalued actors in Hollywood for more than thirty years and Peak TV has shown him at his best and HBO always brings out the best whether as Sol Star in Deadwood or Dustin Powers in Eastbound and Down. Now after twenty years of playing so many basically good characters on TV, he gets to play an absolute dick on Night Country. As Hank, he is the adversary of every character, sexist towards his new boss, racist towards so many of the workers, a bully to his own son. Hank is a monster in a way that even the killers in this series are because his behavior has become so indoctrinated. Hawkes has been one of the most underrecognized actors in history (save for the Independent Spirit Awards) and that he never even got nominated for Deadwood is a f — -ing crime. He earned this. Con: Had he played a character like this in an earlier version of True Detective he probably would have been the hero and won an Emmy. Now he’s the monster and this series belongs to the women.

Lamorne Morris, Fargo. Odds: 7–1. For Playing: Deputy Witt Farr, whose violent encounter with Dot Lyon is only the start of a journey down a rabbit hole. Pro: When we first met Witt in the season 5 premier we didn’t think he’d survive the bloodbath that involved Dot’s escape. When the season ended, we realized he’d only managed to delay his violent end by a few days. Witt was part of a tradition of good-hearted officers of the law dating back all the way to the first season of Fargo; one who has a strong sense of duty and morals that are unaffected by the evils that go on around them and adjust to all of the bizarre characters they meet. In that sense his character was the type that was expected to get lost under the brilliant other character performance who might have been in this category (Joe Keery’s Gator was expected to be here) But Morris’s good heartedness and sense of right and wrong was something Hawley has perfected and by this point we’re used to them being the last ones standing. That he pulled the rug out from under us in the finale was a kick in the teeth Hawley has never done before. It’s a wrenching work. Con: Just as Morris was a surprise nominee for this series, he’s unlikely to win in this powerhouse in this category.

Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry. Odds: 13–2. For Playing: Calvin, a brilliant physicist who falls in love with Elizabeth. Pro: Calvin shockingly died at the end of the second episode of Lessons but his spirit hung over all of Elizabeth’s life, sometimes in flashback, sometimes figuratively, sometimes through the daughter he left behind. Due to Mad’s determination to find out who her father really was, Calvin was as much a presence in the second half of the series as the first. And in The Life of Calvin, we got to see a side of him Elizabeth never did — someone who wasn’t as close-minded to spiritual ideas, someone who was capable of being a good friend, someone who genuinely was capable of love. It was a superb stint that you’d expect from the son of one of the greatest character actors in history. Pullman received multiple nominations and he would be a worthy winner. Con: Lessons has never gotten a reception the way that so many other great series in this category have. And it’s likely not to help that his performance was subtler.

Treat Williams, Capote Vs. The Swans. Odds: 13–2. For Playing: Bill Paley, the head of CBS who takes the betrayal of his wife by Truman Capote very seriously. Pro: The world was stunned by Treat Williams’s accidental death just a few weeks before Capote Vs. The Swans premiered. Williams’s was one of the great actors of the 1980s and 1990s, brilliant as a romantic lead, in character parts and in Everwood a great father figure. Attention was paid one what would now be his final performance and it was a suiting valedictory for a great career. Bill Paley is the most prominent of the husbands of the Swans and it’s clear from the opening what a philanderer and bastard he is. He comes to Babe’s behest at the time of her diagnosis but that doesn’t stop his infidelities — including with one of his wife’s closest friends. As she approaches her death Babe and Bill have a drag-out argument where she makes it clear how much the two of them have failed in this marriage and it hits him hard. But in his scene at his wife’s memorial, women are crowding around him in consolation. Williams went his entire career as an actor never receiving any real recognition. An Emmy would be a fitting tribute to one of our greatest actors. Con: If we know anything about the Emmys, it’s that they don’t let sentimentality rule their judgment. Look no further than last year when Ray Liotta was defeated by his co-star Paul Walter Hauser in this very category. It was a great performance to be sure, but just like the series he was a part of, the Emmys have no more respect for the dead then the Swans and Capote do.

Prediction: I think this one goes to Bailey by a fair margin.

Tomorrow I wrap this up. Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series will be my focus but I’ll try to hit everything else I care about.