My Predictions for The 2024 Emmys, Week 3, Part 2

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES

(We can forego the TV Movie part of this because none of the acting nominees were nominated for one.)

I would like to take this opportunity to toot my own horn slightly. I predicted all five of these men would be nominated. (I also predicted Kiefer Sutherland would be, but that was due to bad math.) All five nominees have given brilliant performances and in four of them we got very different views of homosexuality in a way few categories in TV history ever have. Even more interesting, three of those performances looked to the distant past to show a different world and all three of them ranged from morally ambiguous to downright villainous.

So who is likely to win? Well, we actually have some intriguing possibilities which I’ll relate below.

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers. Odds: 9–2. For Playing: Hawkins Fuller, a 1950s State department official who hides his sexuality in the shadows in the midst of the Lavender Scare. Pro: Bomer received every nomination in the book leading up to the Emmys and is actually the only nominee to have won an award in this category — the Dorian for Best Dramatic Performance in which he was contended against many of the nominees in this category. And having watched his work in what was one of the best shows of 2023, it is impossible to argue with that. Bomer has been one of the most undervalued actors in the era of Peak TV but he was a revelation as Hawk, a man who has no problem flaunting his homosexuality in private but puts up a face of heterosexual bravado in public. We traveled with Bomer backwards and forwards through nearly forty years as he met Tim, an intern for Joe McCarthy. For much of their relationship he would use him for information and sexual purposes, while protecting himself by wooing and marrying the daughter of his patron. We watched him raise a family and endure tragedy, all while the public face was in place. And in the final episode he finally confronted who he was, what it was cost him and with the last sign of the series, one of the most moving moments in all of 2023. Bomer is long overdue an Emmy and this performance deserves it. Con: Bomer couldn’t break against the tide for Steven Yeun at the start of 2024 and now it looks very much like his chances will be thwarted by another star of a Netflix series.

Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer. Odds: 82–25. For Playing: Donny, a struggling comic who befriends the wrong woman at his job bartending and whose life becomes a nightmare he may not escape alive. Pro: At this time last year, no one knew who Richard Gadd was. Now no one will ever forget him. His retelling of the series of horrors he endured when he accidentally befriended a woman named Martha would have been more than enough to astound us. But when we learned what he had been burying in the fourth episode — a horrifying relationship that had essentially destroyed him as a human being — it became one of the great episodes of 2024. Almost every element of Gadd’s performance was incredible, both incredibly dark, funny and an exploration of so much of sexuality that somehow this horrible experience with Martha forced him to confront. Any single moment of his performance could be for consideration. It’s likely that it will be his performance at a comedy showcase where he finally completely unravels and falls into darkness. But I’m just as impressed by his work in the series finale as what is initially a job to listen Martha’s recordings for an overt threat becomes what amounts to a soundtrack of his life that he can’t escape — and at the end of the series, it’s unclear if he’s unable to. This was one of the most moving performances of all of 2024, and he more than deserves to be the favorite for the Emmy. Con: There has since been a backlash against Baby Reindeer, from the original subjects of the article and while none of this is Gadd’s fault or responsibility, he better than anyone knows how the world can turn into one of scapegoating and blaming the victim. It could very well cost him the prize.

Jon Hamm, Fargo. Odds: 9–2. For Playing: Sheriff Roy Tillman, a North Dakota sheriff determined to find his former wife no matter what laws need to be destroyed to do so. Pro: Somehow Jon Hamm, despite playing one of the most iconic characters in TV history, has one of the worst track records of any major performer at the Emmys. He has returned to the awards front in great glory as Roy Tillman, the major force of evil at the center of Fargo’s incredible fifth season. It says something that in five seasons we’ve never had a villain quite like Roy Tillman yet somehow there’s something instantly recognizable about him. A sheriff who believes in right and wrong, but whose law is God’s not man’s. Who believes it his duty to both interpret and execute the law as he sees fit. Who claims to be a family fan but treats his children like dirt, engages in horrible sexual practices with his wife, and who has been a groomer to two previous wives and may well be to a third. Throughout the series he remains convinced of his own righteousness and while he faces a sort of justice at the end, he still remains a monster and alive — and we know all too well that the world he lives in not only tolerates but forgives men like him. Hamm has played morally ambiguous characters all his career but he’s never gotten to play a villain like this. He’s been nominated for Golden Globe and SAG awards and he’s more than due. Con: It’s not just Hamm that has a bad track record with the Emmys; in four seasons not a single actor has ever won an Emmy for Fargo. Granted there have been extenuating circumstances and this group of nominees is just as strong as any of them. All of which means bad things for Hamm. I don’t know if this is right or if it’s wrong but it’s a fact.

Tom Hollander, Capote Vs. The Swans. Odds: 9–2. For Playing: Truman Capote, a brilliant writer trying to decide whether he can finish a book or whether it will finish him. Pro: Somehow Hollander managed to be the only performer on The White Lotus not to get an Emmy nomination last year. There’s a very clear parallel between the character he plays — Capote is another gay man who is trying to murder rich white women here (and is accused at the start of the series of doing just that). But there are critical differences. Truman Capote was one of the most well-known men in America when he was alive and prevalent in high society — something that was unheard of for a person as openly gay as he was. He has been portrayed in multiple films but not like Hollander shows him: a man who spends the first half of the series apparently the vicious destroyer of the circle he was invited into and in the second half, we see the darker side of his Swans and our views are flipped as to who the true victims are. In both cases we see a man who is being starved of his friendship to so many women he truly loved and who dies tragically and alone, absent from the lives of his women. This is one of the powerhouse performances of 2024 and considering Hollander was one of the few people from The White Lotus who can say he was ignobly passed over; he could argue for a win. Con: Unlike so many of the lead contenders Capote Vs. The Swans didn’t get nominated for Best Limited Series. Ever since this era began it has been rare for a lead to win in this category without their show being nominated: the last was Mark Ruffalo for I Know This Much is True and that was a much weaker category then this year. It’s likely to work against Hollander.

Andrew Scott, Ripley. Odds: 19–5. For Playing: Tom Ripley, a low-level New York con man who takes a case of mistaken identity to reinvent himself in Europe. Pro: Scott was bold when he took a role that has been played by such master craftsman as Alain Delon, Matt Damon and John Malkovich to perfection. And like everything he’s done in his career, you can’t imagine anyone else doing it. Scott’s work was unlike the other performers in this category, almost an anomaly in the Emmys in recent year. Tom’s skill was guarding himself and choosing his words carefully so Scott best known as a vibrantly expressive actor in his most well-known roles as Moriarty and Hot Priest, chose to underplay everything he did and say as little as possible. I haven’t seen a show in so long do so much with its pauses and Scott was perfect at this: choosing his words carefully, working backwards to think over old stories, completely silent for large sections of individual episodes. Much of what we heard Scott say was in fact in voiceover from so many of the letters ‘Dickie’ wrote. Even when you knew what he had done Tom’s utter calmness made you doubt yourself when he told other people the opposite. And the two shocking acts of violence he committed were so sudden that the viewer was genuinely surprised — and then the episodes would focus on his calmness as he did everything he could to get away with it. We’ve seen series with murderers and psychopaths at the center of them over the past decade but it says a lot that I’ve never seen anything like Tom Ripley in all this time. It’s the first limited series that deserves a sequel and Scott deserves an Emmy. (Also the Emmys really owes him for ignoring him for Fleabag. We all know it.) Con: The question is can Scott overcome the momentum that Richard Gadd has had for the last six months. There are signs that might happen — Scott has been rising in Emmy predictions the last few weeks — but it might be too late.

Prediction: It comes down to Gadd or Scott. I want to see Scott prevail but I think Gadd wins by an eyelash.

Tomorrow I take on Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series. Not quite as good as Outstanding Lead Actor but a fascinating collection anyway.