My Predictions For This Year’s Emmy Winners, Week 2, Day 1
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
To be clear, I am very aware of what show is going to win Best Drama and unlike previous years, I’m fine with it. I still think there are better choices and I will admit my preferences but unlike previous years I will NOT ignore reality. That said I’ve seen all or part of six of the major nominees and I can’t deny their quality.
Andor (Disney Plus): 9–1. Pro: I started watching Andor out of a sense of obligation. It quickly became one of the most intense series I’ve watched in a very long time. Andor is the first Star Wars based series that is about something other than Star Wars and I mean this as the highest possible compliment. The writing and performance have a rage and emotion that I’ve never felt with anything connected with the series — yes, even with the original films which I know is sacrilege. The first show in the franchise that has managed to make a crossover even with those critics who don’t like the moves at all and led by an incredible cast from Diego Luna on down, the series has become a favorite with MTV fans and critics alike. And I can see why it was nominated for Best Drama. Con: Even if Succession wasn’t in this category, it would be a major lift to see the Emmys give a prize to any show based out of a franchise. They have never been willing to recognize The Mandalorian, I don’t think they will do it here.
Better Call Saul (AMC): 15–2. Pro: Better Call Saul was the big winner of the 2023 Critics Choice awards and anyone who saw the final season can hardly dispute that it didn’t deserve it. As we see the past of Jimmy McGill catch up not merely to the present but saw how everything played out in the future, we saw the three faces of this very complicated man come together in the climax. And in the final episode Saul Goodman did something that Walter White never did — accepted responsibility for his actions as the man he became and for the man he could have been. In a weird way, you could say Jimmy got a happy ending. The viewer definitely did. If there were any justice, the Emmys would give Better Call Saul the grand prize. Con: Of course, there were any justice the Emmys would have given the show something in the previous five seasons it was nominated. The first four seasons it was on the air, it fell victim to Game of Thrones; the last two it was waylaid by Succession and it is more than likely it will happen here too. I acknowledge that Succession is a masterpiece but so is Saul. That said, maybe the Emmys figured they gave enough love to Gilligan and company for breaking Bad.
The Crown (Netflix): 17–2. Pro: As the fifth season of The Crown moved ever closer to the present day, the viewer began to get a fuller scope of the saga that Peter Morgan has been telling for six seasons. By telling the story of the royal family, he has shown how power and wealth corrupt individuals in institutions the same way that David Simon showed it for five seasons on the wire. It has been increasingly hard to watch as Elizabeth and Philip, as they have gotten older, have begun to uphold the ‘system’ they spent the first two seasons rebelling against and it has been even harder to see how it crushes the outsiders like Diana who try to stand against it. Some began to wonder this past season whether The Crown was pro-Diana or pro-Elizabeth. It’s none of those things. It’s anti-monarchy. In that sense, it’s as radical as anything on any service. Con: The fifth season was the poorest received of all that have aired and the Emmys just weren’t willing to give it the recognition it deserved. Combined with the fact that it was suffering in comparison to the fourth season where it swept the board, it’s hard to imagine it has a chance.
House of the Dragon (HBO): 19–2. Pro: The Emmys love Game of Thrones to be sure, but there is a universal appeal: this series won the Golden Globe for Best Drama this winter something its parent show could never pull off. The series quickly became as big a phenomena as Game of Thrones even quicker than the original series and has managed to make many of the images that made the original show work well its own. It’s going to be in contention for a while. Con: Of the four major HBO series that received nominations for Best Drama, House received the least recognition in major categories (though to be fair, two of them didn’t leave much room for anyone else.) The bloom may be off the rose for House, though it may take until Season Two for the fire to burn again
The Last of Us (HBO):13–2. Pro: If this HBO drama had only proven that a successful adaption of a video game was not merely possible but dramatically riveting, it would have earned its spot here. But this is one of the rare HBO mass projects that not only lived up to the hype but surpassed it. The show was one of the more dominant award presences over the last several months, winning from groups as diverse as the MTV Movie and TV awards (it was the biggest winner) and the GALECA awards. It has had more heart then some dramas that are more emotional and the episode ‘Long, Long Time’ has already entered the list of the greatest episodes of all time. I had no idea that this was a video game before it was created. I don’t think anyone will care. Con: There are a lot of HBO phenomena in this category (the network is back in form in a big way) and I have a feeling, given how long it took for Game of Thrones to get Best Drama will let it wait its turn.
Succession (HBO): 4–1. Pro: Those of you who have read my blog know that I devoted a lot of time and words over the past three years saying that everyone who worshipped or raved about Succession was an idiot. Those of you who’ve read my blog over the past several months know that I exuded a lot of time and energy admitting just how wrong I was. I do believe the worship of the series is still excessive but after Connor’s Wedding and every episode leading up to the finale, I would be lying to myself if everything that led up to the ending was not absolutely worthy of the immense recognition it deserved. Given everything that we have seen by other awards shows, including the TCA and the subsequent Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, next month will be a coronation of the series. Con: Perhaps the Emmys will think that they’ve rewarded this series enough? (I’m reaching here.)
The White Lotus (HBO): 11–2. Pro: Last year, I made one of my biggest blunders as a critics when I said The White Lotus had absolutely no chance of getting nominated for Best Drama. Clearly I did not know how much the world loves this show. I think calling the show a drama is a major stretch of the term but I won’t deny just how brilliant the second season was and how well acted and written it was across the board. The appeal of the second season is nearly universal: the series took the Golden Globe for Best Limited Series and the SAG award for Best Drama Ensemble and its won multiple awards from such groups as the MTV Awards as well. And its appeal is hard to deny. This is a marvelous piece of work, and it’s certainly the most fun of all the nominated shows in this category. Dark horse. Con: I do think it is a stretch to call this series a drama and it would be hard to say it was the best one even if Succession weren’t in this category.
Yellowjackets (HBO):19–2. Pro: With the exception of Better Call Saul, this is the series that is my favorite in this category. And the sophomore season was an absolute rush of adrenaline created a blend that is truly unlike any other show on television. Two seasons in, I still have no idea what genre this series is or whether there is a supernatural element to what happened in the plane crash. At this point, I don’t give a damn. The writing is among the best I’ve seen of any TV show since The Americans came to an end, and this show has by far the best assembled group of actresses- both in the present and the past — that TV has seen assembled together in the entire era of Peak TV. With some horrifying images and the most devastating death in 2023 (yes, it’s more horrifying than Logan Roy’s) Yellowjackets is a masterpiece. Con: The series spent its entire second season running against Succession and I have the distinct feeling it will be the poor cousin this year. Don’t worry ladies, you’ll get another chance soon enough.
PREDICTION: It will take an event nearly as earth shaking as Logan Roy’s death for Succession not to win Best Drama, and I don’t have a problem with it. (As for the major acting awards, well, that’s another story.)\
Tomorrow, I will deal with Best Actor in a Drama. I’m not on the Roy bandwagon here for the record.